[Scroll down for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]
Looks like yesterday's picks are not going to move the needle so much today. Williams-Sonoma (WSM) beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance, which left shares trading slightly lower in pre-market trading. Vimpel (VIP) met expectations, which had shares trading up moderately. Combine the two, and you're looking at a pre-market gain of something like 0.5%. But hey, it's still the right direction.
Since there were only 2 (and since you need at least 4 at any time), hopefully you also loaded up on some of the backups, because Guess (GES) and Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) are ready to advance nicely, following upside earnings surprises. SAIC (SAI) is poised to move higher too, just not as much.
Come on back at around 2 pm ET for today's crop. [Update: Picks added; see below]
In the mean time, are you curious whether your Portfolio Challenge performance has been beating the market? Yes, contest strategies and real world investing strategies are wholly distinct (our thrashing monkey forex experiment would have been unwise in the wild), but since the market has declined a couple percent since the contest began, even a dead monkey would've generated some alpha over the last 3 weeks.
So let's find out. You need to go collect two numbers from your favorite portfolio: "Stock Portfolio" (on the portfolio-level screen, in the grey "Balances" frame at the top-right of the page, just under the words "Portfolio Stats" ) and "Total Bonus Bucks" (the bottom line on the Bonus Bucks page).
Copy and paste these three numbers into Excel (or anywhere else that'll let you do some figurin') in A1 and A2. Then enter the following formulas:
- In A3: =((A1-A2)/900000)-1
- In A4: =A3+0.0185
You'll now see your cumulative equity gains to date (in A3) as well as your active return (in A4). Your active return is kind of like alpha, except you're not getting dinged for your psychotic volatility. But it's still accurately described as the amount by which you're beating (or underperforming) the market - in this case the S&P 500, which declined 1.85% between the end of the first day of the contest and yesterday's close.
It's also worth noting that this calculation doesn't account for the fact that you've benefited not just from Bonus Bucks themselves, but from their extra buying power. So even though we're backing out your Bucks balance, your active return as calculated above was boosted a bit (or dragged a bit lower, if negative) thanks to this source of free leverage.
If you can't be bothered to run the calculation, you can eyeball it based on a couple of benchmarks. Again, these refer to the "Stock Portfolio" value, which is only found in that out-of-the-way spot described above (not "Portfolio Value" or "Total Portfolio Value" or "Stocks Intraday").
- "Dead monkey" portfolio value: $1,098,000 (assumes all Bonus Bucks questions answered correctly and no trading activity). Cumulative return: 0.0%. Active return: 1.85%.
- "Market performance" portfolio value: $1,081,350 (assumes all Bonus Bucks questions answered correctly). Cumulative return: 1.85%. Active return: 0.0%.
For what it's worth, the vast majority of portfolios are not only lagging the market, but faring worse than the departed simians (i.e. they'd be doing better if they'd just answered Bonus Bucks questions and done no trading).
Update: As advertised, below are today's eligible earnings reporters:
- Comtech Telecom (CMTL)
- FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
- Financial Federal (FIF)
- Greif Brothers (GEF)
- Martek Biosciences (MATK)
- Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK)
- AMERCO (UHAL)
- Ciena Corporation (CIEN)
- MDS Inc. (MDZ)
- Vail Resorts (MTN)
- Smithfield Foods (SFD)
- Analogic Corporation (ALOG)
- Blyth Inc. (BTH)
- Del Monte Foods (DLM)
- UTi Worldwide (UTIW)
- ADC (ADCT)
- Collective Brands (PSS)
- Ulta Salon (ULTA)
Those final 4 may warrant an extra special look, if you're looking for names that might deliver one-day pops in the next session (based on the amount of analyst coverage, the difference between the high and consensus analyst estimates, recent revisions to those estimates, the stock's historical volatility, the company's earnings surprise track record, today's price moves, and various subjective considerations).
Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations. The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.
See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:
- Week 4: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
- Week 3: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
- Week 2: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
- Week 1: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
- Week 0: Pre-game
- A New Fly In the Ointment
- Currency Trading Resumes
- More Technical Difficulties
- Prize Poll
- The Airing Of Grievances
- Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled
To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.
Wednesday June 4th
Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.
Daily Trivia:
Squawk Box: "Question: In "Cap-and-Trade Craziness" what energy resource does Larry Kudlow NOT mention?"
Answer: Geothermal
Squawk On the Street: "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: Thomas Winmill likes miner Freeport McMoRan for a "special reason." What special reason?"
Answer: Molybdenum production
The Call: "Question: In "The Right Way to Watch Mad Money" (May 28), what proverb does the CNBC.com editor paraphrase?"
Answer: "Give a man a fish.."
Power Lunch: "Question: In "Is The Oil Rally Over?" (May 29) Joe Terranova told the Fast Money traders he's playing oil by:"
Answer: Staying short Hess
Street Signs: "Question: Web Video hunt: On May 27, CNBC interviewed "The Buffett of Brazil." Name him."
Answer: Arminio Fraga
Closing Bell: "Question: In "Ethanolics Anonymous" what does guest blogger Jerry Bowyer cite as a driver of the ethanol trend?"
Answer: All of the above